Canada’s Housing Market Is Unfair, Not Broken

Dr. Rajendra K Panthee

Canada’s housing crisis is usually described as a problem of supply and demand. Build more homes, the argument goes, and prices will eventually come down. That explanation contains some truth, but it also hides a deeper reality that Cara Stern brings out in her conversation with mortgage expert Ron Butler. Canada’s housing crisis is not only about supply. It is about fairness.

The question is no longer simply why houses are expensive. The more important question is why the rules of homeownership have changed so dramatically for one generation while remaining so favorable for another.

A society cannot remain healthy when people working full time, including teachers, nurses, grocery store managers, engineers, and young professionals, can no longer afford to live in the communities they serve. Housing is more than a commodity or an investment. It is the base on which people build families, careers, communities, and a sense of belonging.

Listening to Stern and Butler, one realizes that the conversation is not really about mortgages or real estate. It is about how decades of public policy have quietly reshaped the Canadian dream.

From Ordinary to Unreachable

Ron Butler recalls entering the mortgage industry more than three decades ago when an assistant grocery store manager and a registered nurse could regularly purchase a home in the Greater Toronto Area with a modest down payment. Home prices generally ranged between two and a half and three and a half times a household’s annual income.

Today, in many Canadian cities, particularly Toronto and Vancouver, home prices have reached seven, eight, or even twelve times household income.

That is not just inflation. It is a complete redefinition of adulthood.

For previous generations, buying a home was a realistic milestone reached through employment and savings. For many young Canadians today, homeownership increasingly depends on inherited wealth, parental support, or the willingness to take on decades of crushing debt.

We are told this is progress. It is not. It is a narrowing of social mobility dressed up as a normal market adjustment.

The Myth of Equal Effort

One of the strongest points Stern makes is that acknowledging generational inequality does not diminish the hard work of previous generations.

Many older Canadians respond, quite understandably, by saying, “We worked hard too.”

No one seriously disputes that. The issue is not effort. The issue is whether equal effort still produces equal opportunity.

A young couple earning above the national median income, saving diligently, avoiding extravagance, and making responsible choices can still find themselves priced out of family sized housing. If financially responsible households cannot buy modest homes, the problem cannot be reduced to budgeting discipline or lifestyle choices.

It becomes structural.

Stern speaks from experience. She and her husband were earning above the median household income, living frugally, and saving consistently. Yet they still found themselves unable to purchase even very small homes that could accommodate the family they hoped to build.

That frustration eventually became professional curiosity. Instead of accepting the situation as inevitable, she began asking why the housing market seemed so detached from ordinary incomes. That inquiry led her into housing journalism.

Housing Is a Policy Choice

Perhaps the most important insight in the conversation is Stern’s insistence that today’s housing crisis did not simply happen. It was created through policy.

Too often Canadians speak about housing affordability as though it were a force of nature. It is not.

Governments make decisions about zoning regulations. Governments determine development charges. Governments decide how municipalities finance infrastructure. Governments establish tax systems. Governments regulate land use. Governments shape immigration targets. Governments influence mortgage rules.

Every one of those choices affects housing affordability.

In Stern’s words, the economy is a series of choices.

That changes the whole conversation. If policy helped create the crisis, policy can also help solve it. The challenge is not mainly technical. It is political.

The trouble is that political courage is usually in short supply when the people most protected by the current system are also the loudest defenders of it.

When Cities Fund Themselves Through Housing

One of Butler’s strongest criticisms concerns the enormous rise in municipal development charges.

Municipal governments need revenue, but they do not want to anger existing homeowners by raising property taxes. So instead, they shift infrastructure costs onto new housing developments. The logic is obvious. Existing voters stay happy. Future homeowners pay the bill.

It is a neat trick, and it has been repeated often enough to become normal.

Of course, developers do not absorb these costs forever. They pass them on to buyers. So development charges that were once relatively modest have grown dramatically over the past two decades, adding tens of thousands and sometimes hundreds of thousands of dollars to the price of newly built homes.

The result is perverse. Policies sold as responsible municipal planning end up making homeownership harder for the very people trying to enter the market.

In other words, younger Canadians are paying twice. They pay through high housing prices and again through the financing mechanisms hidden inside those prices.

The Missing Middle

Another major theme in the conversation is Canada’s obsession with building either detached suburban homes or very small condominiums.

What has largely disappeared is what urban planners call the missing middle. Duplexes, triplexes, fourplexes, courtyard apartments, townhouses, and other family sized medium density housing have been squeezed out by zoning rules and planning habits that no longer serve the reality of modern cities.

These forms of housing once allowed neighbourhoods to grow gradually while remaining affordable. Today many municipalities continue to restrict them through rules inherited from another era, as though the car oriented suburbs of the mid 20th century should still dictate how a 21st century city must function.

The result is predictable. Developers either build luxury detached homes where land is available or maximize profit by producing tiny condominium units in expensive urban locations.

Families searching for modest three bedroom homes find very few choices.

Canada has become increasingly successful at producing housing units while becoming less successful at producing homes that ordinary families can actually use. Those are not the same thing.

Counting units tells us little if families cannot live in them.

What Housing Really Means

Perhaps the most affecting part of Stern’s interview is her own plain and deeply human wish.

She does not dream of luxury. She wants what previous generations often treated as ordinary. A stable home. A neighbourhood. Children attending the same school. Some freedom from the anxiety that a landlord may decide to sell and uproot the family.

That should not sound radical. Yet in today’s Canada, even basic stability can sound like a privilege.

Housing shapes far more than the real estate market. It shapes whether people marry, whether they have children, whether they stay in a city, whether they volunteer, whether they build roots, and whether they imagine a future at all.

A country that makes stable housing inaccessible is not just creating a housing problem. It is weakening its own social future.

A Fairness Crisis

The housing debate is usually framed as a contest between homeowners and renters, developers and environmentalists, cities and provinces, or supply advocates and affordability advocates.

Cara Stern’s conversation with Ron Butler suggests a better framework. The central question is fairness.

Can a young Canadian working full time reasonably expect to own a modest home. Can ordinary families remain in the cities where they grew up. Can children afford to live near their parents. Can essential workers afford to live where they work.

If the answer increasingly becomes no, then Canada faces more than a housing shortage. It faces a fairness crisis.

Fixing that will require more than adding units. It will require rebuilding a system that once allowed ordinary work to produce ordinary dreams.

Until that happens, Canada’s housing market will remain not only expensive, but fundamentally unfair.

Toronto’s Condo Market Isn’t Slowing — It’s Crashing

Dr. Rajendra Panthee

Toronto’s condo market is not experiencing a normal downturn. It’s going through a structural breakdown.

According to Urbanation data, by 2029 Toronto could see virtually no new condo completions. That sounds impossible in one of North America’s fastest-growing regions—but the numbers don’t lie. New condo sales in the GTA have collapsed to their lowest levels since 1991, despite today’s population and housing demand being dramatically higher.

This collapse isn’t random. It’s the failure of the investor-driven condo model.

For over a decade, most pre-construction condos weren’t built for families or end-users. They were built for investors. The model was simple: buy pre-construction, wait a few years, prices rise, rent it or flip it. That model only worked in a world of cheap money, rising prices, and investor optimism. That world is gone.

High interest rates, falling prices, and weaker rents have destroyed the economics of pre-construction investing. As investor demand disappears, the entire development pipeline shuts down.

And here’s the key reality:
Pre-construction sales drive future construction.
When sales collapse, housing starts collapse.
When housing starts collapse, future supply disappears.

This is already happening across the GTA, with housing starts far below long-term averages. Even if demand returns tomorrow, supply cannot restart quickly—condo development is a multi-year process. Today’s sales collapse becomes tomorrow’s supply crisis.

This isn’t primarily about government taxes or red tape. Housing starts are falling across North America. This is a housing cycle problem, amplified in Toronto because the city became deeply dependent on speculative investor demand.

The economic impact will go far beyond housing. Construction jobs, trades, suppliers, engineers, and entire supply chains are affected. Housing doesn’t just reflect the economy — it drives it.

But this doesn’t mean prices will automatically surge in a few years. Future outcomes depend on uncertain factors: population growth, immigration, interest rates, economic conditions, and income growth. Anyone selling a simple “supply crash = guaranteed boom” story is oversimplifying reality.

The truth is simpler and more honest:

Toronto’s condo market has hit a breaking point.
The investor model no longer works.
The supply pipeline is shrinking.
And the housing system is entering a painful but necessary reset.

What comes next won’t be shaped by hype —
it will be shaped by fundamentals, policy, and economic reality.

Who Broke Canada’s Housing Market: Government or the Market?

Dr. Rajendra Panthee

Canada’s housing crisis is often discussed in absolutes: either prices will crash, or they will never fall; either governments must intervene more, or get out of the way entirely. But when we place recent market conditions alongside deeper structural critiques—like those raised on Angry Mortgage—a more complicated, and more honest, picture emerges.

A Short-Term Opening for Buyers

In the near term, there is a meaningful shift underway—particularly in markets like Toronto and Vancouver.

Sales volumes are historically low. Investor activity has largely evaporated. Pre-construction is stalled. Buyers who remain are mostly end users: families and individuals looking for a place to live, not to flip. This has quietly shifted leverage. Selection has improved. Negotiation is back. Sellers, not buyers, are adjusting expectations.

This does not mean we are at the “bottom,” nor does it mean prices cannot fall further. But for financially stable households—especially first-time buyers who were entirely shut out between 2020 and 2022—this is the most buyer-friendly environment in years.

Yet this short-term opening exists inside a housing system that remains fundamentally broken.

The Structural Problem: Housing as a Government Revenue Tool

As Ben Woodfinden argued on Angry Mortgage, the most under-discussed driver of unaffordability is not speculation alone, immigration alone, or even interest rates—but government cost-loading on new housing.

In cities like Toronto, as much as 30% of the cost of a new home is made up of development charges, fees, taxes, and levies. These are not marginal costs. They are embedded into the price of every unit, passed directly to buyers, and treated as a normal feature of governance.

Housing, in effect, has been taxed like a luxury good—while being rhetorically framed as a human necessity.

Layered on top is what Woodfinden calls the “Anglo disease”: a regulatory culture that makes building slow, adversarial, and legally dense. Years of approvals, consultant reports, appeals, and political veto points create scarcity by design. The result is not careful planning—it is paralysis.

This is how Canada ends up with 50-storey towers beside single-family zoning, and almost nothing in between.

The Missing Middle—and the Missing Social Contract

What ties these discussions together is not just economics, but expectations.

A generation of Canadians did what the social contract asked of them: education, work, saving, delayed gratification. Yet homeownership now requires top-1–2% household incomes in major cities. The promise that effort leads to stability has quietly collapsed.

That anger is not theoretical. It shows up in delayed families, longer commutes, overcrowding, and a growing sense that democracy responds faster to asset holders than to workers.

When young professionals earning $90,000–$100,000 cannot even imagine owning a modest home, something deeper than market cycles has failed.

So Where Does This Leave Us?

In the short run, today’s market offers cautious opportunity for buyers who are purchasing shelter, not status.

In the long run, affordability will not be restored without structural change:

  • Development charges must be rethought.
  • Zoning must allow mid-density housing where people already live.
  • Speed, not symbolism, must become the metric of housing policy.

More programs alone will not fix this. Nor will pretending the market can self-correct under the current regulatory load.

A Critical Outlook

Canada’s housing crisis is not caused by a single villain. It is the outcome of decades of policy choices that treated housing simultaneously as an investment vehicle, a revenue source, and a political risk to be avoided.

Buyers may find a window today—but unless governments stop profiting from scarcity while promising affordability, that window will close again.

The question is no longer whether housing is broken.
It is whether we are willing to stop pretending we don’t know why.

Short Housing Supply: A Contributing Factor of Housing Bubble in Canada

Canada, especially Greater Toronto Area (GTA), has a lack of housing supply! No matter where land for the first time as immigrants or live in general, they want to settle down in GTA since Toronto is the financial capital of Canada and there are more job and enterprenual opportunities than other places in Canada. According to Financial Post, “Among the G7m Canada has the lowest average housing supply per capita with 424 units per 1,000 people, which places the country behind the United States and the United Kingdom. France, by comparison, leades the G7 at 540 units per 1,000. The pandemic, which allowed households to accrue record savings and saw unprecedented stimulus measure, stoked the country’s hot housing market and has pushed it into frothy territory over the past two years”. CMHC warned back in 2022 that Canada will need 5.8 million new homes by 2030 to tackle affordability crisis (CBC News). Yes, they like to build more houses, however, there is a complex time-consuming approval process. According to Amborki, it can take eight to ten years to go from acqiring undeveloped land to building houses. Most importantly, it is very hard to get land in or close to Toronto area.

Canadian government has done something for the housing affordability. And, it has recently (from April 1, 2023) announced First Home Saving Account (FHSA) and it is a registered plan allowing you, as a prospective first-time home buyer, to save for your first home tax-free (up to certain limits). And, it has prohibited on the purchase of residential property by non-Canadians Act. And, it has initiated a vacancy tax at federal, provincial and municipal in some cases. No matter what the government is doine, it shows that it is easier said than done.

Experts say that Canada is sitting on the larguest housing bubble ever! And they believe that bursting of the bubble is inevitable. Even is the economic crisis in US in 2008, Canadian housing market did not crash. It only went to -9.2% low and it recovered quickly. They say that Canadian housing market has not seen that correction yet. After the recession in 2008 the banks around the world lowered the interest rates to very low as a result, it became very easy to get a mortgage and buy a house until 2022.

As a result, many investors took that money and invested in the real estate because the investment in the real estate had a track record of generating income from the investment. As a result, on the one hand there are houses that belong to investors that are empty, on the other hand there not enough houses for other people to live. As a result, when those people who do not have homes want to buy one, there are not enough homes available in the market. Property prices in the market are skyrocket, when so many people want to buy a property. Rapidly rising prices of assets lead to volatile prices. As a result, a huge bubble has been created for a long time and especially after covid-19! Experts say Canada is living in the biggest housing bubble ever! And they believe that the bursting of the bubble is inevitable. (My next post will be in interest rate and housing bubble!)

Bank of Canada Interest Cuts and Expert Views on Canadian Real Estate Market

How is real estate market after the latest interest cut by the bank of Canada? What do real estate experts say about the interest cut and its aftermath? We find mixed feelings when we listen to those experts in the field. According to The Globe and Mail article, Royal LePage president predicts 'real lift’ in home sales after Bank of Canada cut the interest rate. However, John Pasalis, one of the real estate practitioner and researcher does not think so. He does not think so since there will be any sales increase until next year because right now the interest rate is very high. On the other hand, John Flynn, another real estate practitioner and researcher says that nothing is going to happen after the interest rate cut as whatever had to happen has already happened before the rate cut. Yes, there is a gradual improvement for freeholds right now. It does not mean that the price will drastically go up after the rate cut for the freehold. Condo market is down right now. The sellers of the vacant condo rush to sale and you may get for even low price. And, the buyers are reluctant to buy the rented condo for various reasons. Stay informed and use your rational before you rush to invest in real estate after listening to people.