Mortgage Debt and Housing Crisis

Another reason of housing bubble is mortgage debt! When interest rates were historically low during the Covid-19 period, people easily qualified for mortgages. And, many buyers were in the real estate market and bought homes. When everyone wanted to buy, house prices went up. Do you remember house prices from the end of 2021 to May 2022? People say that house prices can never rise to that point. Do you think the value of the house has gone up since you and your partner bought a house to live in? If you think so, you are wrong. As speculators saw the potential to make money in that hot real estate market, they bought many houses not to live in but to sell them later to make money. For example, you may have seen some houses in your neighborhood sell multiple times in a short period of time. Have you even heard of real estate agents involved in fixing home prices through artificial bidding at that time? Did you hear about some real estate client suing real estate agents for bidding wars? I have heard and read about them all. Were all those things there when the real estate market was hot?

Now let’s come back to today's topic! Another cause of the housing bubble or housing crisis is mortgage debt! When interest rates are low, people pay historically high prices to buy homes. Then, the government should control it and to control inflation in general and house prices in particular, the government raised interest rates. Then, what happens? Businesses slowed or stopped, people lost jobs and people found it difficult to buy food for their family members. And people found it difficult to pay their mortgages. Analysis by the Royal Bank of Canada shows that Canadian housing is less affordable/affordable than it has ever been. By 2023 Canada's non-financial debt will exceed 300% of GDP and domestic debt will exceed 100% of GDP, both higher than levels seen in the United States before the 2008 global financial crisis. And the mortgage loan increased! According to a report by the Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC), Canadian mortgage loans totaled $2.16 trillion – up 3.4 per cent from the same period last year. High interest rates and uncertainty over the central bank's plans to cut key interest rates led to lower home sales and softer prices in many areas. This is the current situation. RSM Canada economist Tu Nguyen says it's not surprising that housing market activity has slowed. Imagine when more people can't pay their mortgages and the banks take over their property. Imagine when more people can't pay their mortgages and the banks take over their property. Then, there will be no house sales and there will be no new projects. This means the housing bubble may burst soon and the housing market will crash if Canadian government will stop protecting the housing market in future! (My next post will be on another reason of housing bubble!)

Toronto Condominium Market

I liked to go back to what I said about condominium and freehold prices recently. Yes, the price of condo is going low because of oversupply in the market. The price of freehold is going up at least in the prime locations in Toronto. Yes, it is also true that if the freehold price keeps climbing, people will start thinking about a condominium because of condo price and their own budget. It is very possible soon. If you think let me go ahead buy a condo and live in it for now, please do not buy unless you plan to live in it at least for 5 years. There is a possibility of price going even lower in the days to come. There is so much supply of both freehold and condominium in the market right now. Maybe it is because of summer. There are more listings in the summer compared to winter and buyers have more choices in terms of prices and everything else. You even heard from me that it is not a good time to sell the house. But it is also true that real estate is not going to improve in any time soon. The conclusion is do not sell your property unless it is absolutely necessary. No one knows what you need to do better than you yourself! 

Bank of Canada Interest Cuts and Expert Views on Canadian Real Estate Market

How is real estate market after the latest interest cut by the bank of Canada? What do real estate experts say about the interest cut and its aftermath? We find mixed feelings when we listen to those experts in the field. According to The Globe and Mail article, Royal LePage president predicts 'real lift’ in home sales after Bank of Canada cut the interest rate. However, John Pasalis, one of the real estate practitioner and researcher does not think so. He does not think so since there will be any sales increase until next year because right now the interest rate is very high. On the other hand, John Flynn, another real estate practitioner and researcher says that nothing is going to happen after the interest rate cut as whatever had to happen has already happened before the rate cut. Yes, there is a gradual improvement for freeholds right now. It does not mean that the price will drastically go up after the rate cut for the freehold. Condo market is down right now. The sellers of the vacant condo rush to sale and you may get for even low price. And, the buyers are reluctant to buy the rented condo for various reasons. Stay informed and use your rational before you rush to invest in real estate after listening to people.