Monthly Archives: December 2024

Mortgage Debt and Housing Crisis

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Another reason of housing bubble is mortgage debt! When interest rates were historically low during the Covid-19 period, people easily qualified for mortgages. And, many buyers were in the real estate market and bought homes. When everyone wanted to buy, house prices went up. Do you remember house prices from the end of 2021 to May 2022? People say that house prices can never rise to that point. Do you think the value of the house has gone up since you and your partner bought a house to live in? If you think so, you are wrong. As speculators saw the potential to make money in that hot real estate market, they bought many houses not to live in but to sell them later to make money. For example, you may have seen some houses in your neighborhood sell multiple times in a short period of time. Have you even heard of real estate agents involved in fixing home prices through artificial bidding at that time? Did you hear about some real estate client suing real estate agents for bidding wars? I have heard and read about them all. Were all those things there when the real estate market was hot?

Now let’s come back to today's topic! Another cause of the housing bubble or housing crisis is mortgage debt! When interest rates are low, people pay historically high prices to buy homes. Then, the government should control it and to control inflation in general and house prices in particular, the government raised interest rates. Then, what happens? Businesses slowed or stopped, people lost jobs and people found it difficult to buy food for their family members. And people found it difficult to pay their mortgages. Analysis by the Royal Bank of Canada shows that Canadian housing is less affordable/affordable than it has ever been. By 2023 Canada's non-financial debt will exceed 300% of GDP and domestic debt will exceed 100% of GDP, both higher than levels seen in the United States before the 2008 global financial crisis. And the mortgage loan increased! According to a report by the Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC), Canadian mortgage loans totaled $2.16 trillion – up 3.4 per cent from the same period last year. High interest rates and uncertainty over the central bank's plans to cut key interest rates led to lower home sales and softer prices in many areas. This is the current situation. RSM Canada economist Tu Nguyen says it's not surprising that housing market activity has slowed. Imagine when more people can't pay their mortgages and the banks take over their property. Imagine when more people can't pay their mortgages and the banks take over their property. Then, there will be no house sales and there will be no new projects. This means the housing bubble may burst soon and the housing market will crash if Canadian government will stop protecting the housing market in future! (My next post will be on another reason of housing bubble!)

Interest Hikes and Housing Bubble Burst

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Another reason for housing bubble or housing crisis is interest rate hikes. If interest rates are low, housing bubbles often get even bigger. At lower rates people can buy larger mortgages, increasing demand and driving up prices. Buyers may take out risky loans, ignoring warning signs like rising interest rates or a shrinking economy. And then there’s the herd mentality. People see big money being made in the real estate market and so do other people. A real estate shopping frenzy ensues. When people are in a bubble they think the market will never change! For example, when the Bank of Canada cut interest rates during Covid in 2020, house prices skyrocketed by May 2022.

When there is too much inflation and house prices are too high, it needs to be controlled to cool down inflation and the housing market. The Bank of Canada raised interest rates in July 2017 for the first time in seven years, slowing the housing market as Canada’s biggest banks raised interest rates. And, the biggest interest increase comes in 2023. The Bank of Canada raised interest rates by 100 basis points in 2023 to curb inflation, the largest increase since 1998. The governor of the Bank of Canada said the increase was necessary to prevent high inflation from stifling. The governor had said that the interest rate will be reduced to 2 percent. On the other hand, according to economists, it was a gamble by the Bank of Canada, that inflation had factors other than the housing market (such as the war in Ukraine, supply chain issues and so on) that were beyond the Bank of Canada’s control. According to economists, this would certainly reduce inflation but not immediately. Whether or not it controlled the price of food, oil, it certainly controlled the housing market. The rising rates certainly affected those who took out mortgages for home purchases and took out new loans. According to economists, this would certainly reduce inflation but not immediately. Whether or not it controlled the price of food, oil, it certainly controlled the housing market. The rising rates certainly affected those who took out mortgages for home purchases and took out new loans. We can see that when the Bank of Canada starts raising interest rates from July 2022 and home prices start to cool. Yes, interest rate hikes in 2022 and 2023 have certainly cooled the market, although they have not burst the housing bubble. If interest rates rise sharply, it can become more expensive to get a mortgage, which can reduce demand for houses and condos. Now people are not ready to go to the real estate market! Yes, the housing market has definitely cooled but not cracked yet! The housing bubble has yet to burst and a housing crisis could happen at any time. (My next post will be on another mortgage loan!)

Short Housing Supply: A Contributing Factor of Housing Bubble in Canada

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Canada, especially Greater Toronto Area (GTA), has a lack of housing supply! No matter where land for the first time as immigrants or live in general, they want to settle down in GTA since Toronto is the financial capital of Canada and there are more job and enterprenual opportunities than other places in Canada. According to Financial Post, “Among the G7m Canada has the lowest average housing supply per capita with 424 units per 1,000 people, which places the country behind the United States and the United Kingdom. France, by comparison, leades the G7 at 540 units per 1,000. The pandemic, which allowed households to accrue record savings and saw unprecedented stimulus measure, stoked the country’s hot housing market and has pushed it into frothy territory over the past two years”. CMHC warned back in 2022 that Canada will need 5.8 million new homes by 2030 to tackle affordability crisis (CBC News). Yes, they like to build more houses, however, there is a complex time-consuming approval process. According to Amborki, it can take eight to ten years to go from acqiring undeveloped land to building houses. Most importantly, it is very hard to get land in or close to Toronto area.

Canadian government has done something for the housing affordability. And, it has recently (from April 1, 2023) announced First Home Saving Account (FHSA) and it is a registered plan allowing you, as a prospective first-time home buyer, to save for your first home tax-free (up to certain limits). And, it has prohibited on the purchase of residential property by non-Canadians Act. And, it has initiated a vacancy tax at federal, provincial and municipal in some cases. No matter what the government is doine, it shows that it is easier said than done.

Experts say that Canada is sitting on the larguest housing bubble ever! And they believe that bursting of the bubble is inevitable. Even is the economic crisis in US in 2008, Canadian housing market did not crash. It only went to -9.2% low and it recovered quickly. They say that Canadian housing market has not seen that correction yet. After the recession in 2008 the banks around the world lowered the interest rates to very low as a result, it became very easy to get a mortgage and buy a house until 2022.

As a result, many investors took that money and invested in the real estate because the investment in the real estate had a track record of generating income from the investment. As a result, on the one hand there are houses that belong to investors that are empty, on the other hand there not enough houses for other people to live. As a result, when those people who do not have homes want to buy one, there are not enough homes available in the market. Property prices in the market are skyrocket, when so many people want to buy a property. Rapidly rising prices of assets lead to volatile prices. As a result, a huge bubble has been created for a long time and especially after covid-19! Experts say Canada is living in the biggest housing bubble ever! And they believe that the bursting of the bubble is inevitable. (My next post will be in interest rate and housing bubble!)

Speculators and Housing Bubble in Greater Toronto Area (GTA)

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Let's start with the first factor of housing bubble for today.  The number one biggest driver of the housing bubble is speculators' speculation. Don't you ever wonder why home prices in the GTA are so high? If you think about housing prices here, one of the reasons why house prices are so high in the GTA is because of those speculators. Speculators buy properties not to live in or rent out, but to sell quickly and at high prices to make huge profits. A simple example is the fact that realtors have lots of houses in the GTA at a time when it is difficult for many Ontarians to buy a house! When speculation causes people to feel that home prices will rise indefinitely, this can lead to a bubble as people continue to buy homes at increasingly high prices for an investment purpose.

The same has been happening in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) for a long time now. Speculators are banking on the fact that their home values ​​will continue to rise. One of the reasons Canadian homes are so expensive is because of speculators' valuation practices. The Canadian government comes up with various control measures to prevent this (such as the previous foreign buyer tax increase and the current higher tax on earnings over two hundred and fifty thousand) from time to time, however, they easily find flaws in the government's efforts, and it is difficult to completely control or prevent it. Yes, many immigrants have come and are coming to Canada, and they all prefer to settle in the GTA. Everyone in the GTA needs a house to have a roof over their head and raise their family for sure . Because of this the GTA housing market is heating up by the day. It cannot always be hot, and it needs to be cooled. The housing bubble created by this fever will one day burst, and it must burst to control the unruly real estate market. Honestly speaking,  many people want to see this market crash so they can afford to buy a house! And it's also true that the current housing situation is worse than a housing crash. However, this should not be an accident because its consequences are beyond imagination. (I'll talk about the second factor in the housing bubble in my next post!)

					

		
		
	


				
					
	

		

						
Housing Bubble and Buying a Property in Canada

			
						

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Before you buy a house in Canada in general and Greater Toronto Area (GTA) in particular, you need to know about a housing bubble. The reason I keep saying do not just jump into the market yet is because the real estate practitioners are worried whether the bubble is going to burst anytime soon. Remember housing price was at the peak in 2022 and the price was checked with the interest rate rise. It is not that the bubble is burst yet, it is just controlled. It is important to understand it. Let’s talk about what it is. 

A housing bubble happens when housing prices skyrocket, and real estate values become so unsustainably high that eventually the bubble bursts. Housing prices are disconnected from the “intrinsic property values.” Intrinsic property values are prices based on economic factors like income levels, rental costs, and other things that traditionally influence property values. Skyrocketing housing bubble prices occur when several things happen at once. Some of the contributing factors are: Speculation, Limited Housing, Interest Rates, Mortgage Debts, and Increased Development. 

					

		
		
	


				
					
	

		

						
Don’t Be Fooled by Your Real Estate Agent

			
						

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Look at the current real estate market!  Greater Toronto Area has 23,161 Homes For Sale. According to Toronto Regional Real Estate Board, more than eight thousand one hundred condos were vacant in Toronto in May, 2024. This number is increasing every day, not decreasing. It is because most of the condos in Toronto are/were owned by the investors. Because of interest rate and price reductions, those investors like to exit from their investment. Looks like buyers are not interested to jump into the real estate market just yet! They want to wait until other 2 to 3 rate cuts. As a result, the house price is not going to climb just yet. If your real estate agent is telling to buy a house right now otherwise the house price will skyrocket very soon, it is not true! Do not believe him or her!

					

		
		
	


				
					
	

		

						
Toronto Condominium Market

			
						

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I liked to go back to what I said about condominium and freehold prices recently. Yes, the price of condo is going low because of oversupply in the market. The price of freehold is going up at least in the prime locations in Toronto. Yes, it is also true that if the freehold price keeps climbing, people will start thinking about a condominium because of condo price and their own budget. It is very possible soon. If you think let me go ahead buy a condo and live in it for now, please do not buy unless you plan to live in it at least for 5 years. There is a possibility of price going even lower in the days to come. There is so much supply of both freehold and condominium in the market right now. Maybe it is because of summer. There are more listings in the summer compared to winter and buyers have more choices in terms of prices and everything else. You even heard from me that it is not a good time to sell the house. But it is also true that real estate is not going to improve in any time soon. The conclusion is do not sell your property unless it is absolutely necessary. No one knows what you need to do better than you yourself! 

					

		
		
	


				
					
	

		

						
Cash Back Offers and Reasonable Prices and Smooth Transitions

			
						

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I often hear about cashback and sharing commission in the market. the buyers and sellers are always running after those things! Even if a real estate agent is not knowledgeable enough about the market, property and other related issues in the real estate market, they do not care all those things. buyers and sellers only care about those things they get from their agent. do not run after cashback and other discount your real estate agent provides you with! instead care about whether he or she shows you good property or not! good property and reasonable prices are way better than those cashbacks and giving his or her 1 or 1.5 commission back!

					

		
		
	


				
					
	

		

						
Bank of Canada Interest Cuts and Expert Views on Canadian Real Estate Market

			
						

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How is real estate market after the latest interest cut by the bank of Canada? What do real estate experts say about the interest cut and its aftermath? We find mixed feelings when we listen to those experts in the field. According to The Globe and Mail article, Royal LePage president predicts 'real lift’ in home sales after Bank of Canada cut the interest rate. However, John Pasalis, one of the real estate practitioner and researcher does not think so. He does not think so since there will be any sales increase until next year because right now the interest rate is very high. On the other hand, John Flynn, another real estate practitioner and researcher says that nothing is going to happen after the interest rate cut as whatever had to happen has already happened before the rate cut. Yes, there is a gradual improvement for freeholds right now. It does not mean that the price will drastically go up after the rate cut for the freehold. Condo market is down right now. The sellers of the vacant condo rush to sale and you may get for even low price. And, the buyers are reluctant to buy the rented condo for various reasons. Stay informed and use your rational before you rush to invest in real estate after listening to people.

					

		
		
	


				
					
	

		

						

			
						

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Easing of Inflation and Canadian Housing Market 















“If inflation continues to ease, and our confidence that inflation is headed sustainably to the 2-per-cent target continues to increase, it is reasonable to expect further cuts to our policy interest rate. But we are taking our interest rate decisions one meeting at a time.” Mr. Macklem said. The Bank of Canada is the first G7 central bank to start easing monetary policy. The European Central Bank is expected to follow suit on Thursday, while the U.S. Federal Reserve, which is dealing with a stronger economy and more stubborn inflation, is expected to hold off rate cuts until later in the year. 





The next meeting is on July 24, six weeks from now. This interest rate cut is like “finally, the interest rate is not going to increase.” Nothing more than that.  Looks like this rate cut is not going to bring any momentum in a near future. Since the current inventory dictates price of a house for at least 90 days, there is more than enough inventory in the GTA housing market. Based on the current listing, free hold market may go up whereas condo market will stay same or go down until the current inventory is cleared up since there is too much inventory in the condo market.